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Bank Loan Growth measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.
the Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Unlike the fixed-weight CPI, PCE is chain-weighted and thus adjusts to changing consumer behaviour. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure and thus receives greater attention.
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources (including interest, dividends and capital gains on investments) by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Personal Spending measures the change in the value of all spending by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. This report does, however, tend to have a mild impact, as government data on retail sales is released about two weeks earlier.
Personal consumption adjusted for inflation, Personal consumption is divided into two key categories: goods and services. The category of "goods" is further broken down into "durable" goods, which are big-ticket items (refrigerators, television sets, cars, mobile phones, etc.) that will last more than three years, and "non-durable" goods that are more transitory (e.g., cosmetics, fuel, clothing, etc.). A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Debt-to-GDP ratio is the amount of national debt of a country as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A low debt-to-GDP ratio points to the sustainability of government finances.
Brazil's consolidated public sector comprises the Central Government, regional governments and public enterprises. The nominal (fiscal) budget balance includesdebt servicing costs. For calculation of the nominal result, nominal interest ofthe federal government is included on an accrual basis. Fiscal statistics presented according to the "above the line" criterion applied by the National Treasury Secretariat to consolidate, compile and produce the data.
Brazil's consolidated public sector comprises the Central Government, regional governments and public enterprises. The primary budget balance excludes debt servicing costs (payments of interest and amortizations of the public debt, as well as state and municipal loans). Moreover, the following items are excluded from the calculation of the primary result: interest, earnings on deposits, privatization revenues, cash and credit operations. Fiscal statistics presented according to the "above the line" criterion applied by the National Treasury Secretariat to consolidate, compile and produce the data.
The Michigan sentiment index includes two major components, a "current conditions" component and an "expectations" component. The current conditions portion indicates survey respondents thoughts on the present economic situation. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
University of Michigan (UoM) Inflation Expectations measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart,Preliminary and Revised. The preliminary release is the earliest so tends to have more impact.
The Michigan sentiment index includes two major components, a "current conditions" component and an "expectations" component. The current conditions component index is based on the answers to two standard questions and the expectations component index is based on three standard questions. This number is the expectations part of the overall index. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. This is the final number.
The University of Michigan Inflation Expectations survey of consumers presents the median expected price changes for the next 5 years.
In any given month, the rate of inflation in a price index like the Consumer Price Index or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) can be thought of as a weighted average, or mean, of the rates of change in the prices of all the goods and services that make up the index. Calculating the trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from fell the most to rose the most, and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are like a skaters best and worst marks thrown out, or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. For the series presented here, 19.4 percent of the weight from the lower tail and 25.4 percent of the weight in the upper tail are trimmed. Those proportions have been chosen, based on historical data, to give the best fit between the trimmed-mean inflation rate and proxies for the true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional excluding food and energy measure as a gauge of core inflation.